The Path to War between Russia and Ukraine

What drove Russia to invade Ukraine?

The war between Russia and Ukraine has ignited fierce debate on its causes as well as how it might end around the world. Realists claim that it was the result of great power rivalry between Russia and the United States. The expansion of NATO membership to former members of the Warsaw Pact, according to this view, instilled a sense of insecurity that provoked President Vladimir Putin and his regime. Yet this view has been undermined by Putin’s calm acceptance of NATO’s most recent expansion to Finland and Sweden, right up to Russia’s borders. The view also discounts how the states that emerged from the collapse of the USSR diverged in their aspirations and institutions since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia slid back into authoritarianism and imperialism, while Ukraine consolidated a competitive political system and fledgling democracy, determined to pursue European integration as a sovereign nation-state.

How did the expansion of autocracy and democracy shape each country over the last two decades? Why has Ukraine resisted Russia better than many had anticipated? What are the prospects for peace, recovery and democracy in each polity in the years ahead?

The distinguished political scientist Maria Popova examines these debates in conversation with Sanjay Ruparelia and Arne Kislenko.